2013 NFL Thread

[dmhenderson]

Originally Posted by exsanity

So, what is your take on this weekend's games?

These are going to be tougher to call.

The 4 teams that remain were/are the best 4 teams in the playoffs (sorry Carolina) and both matchups have a blood feud/rivalry component which will make them harder to pick. The problem with championship games/superbowls is that point spreads become fairly meaningless and realistically, you're looking at a pick'em regardless of spread. Sure, that makes the underdog seem more attractive but the human brain does not process probability all that well - so just assume your chances of winning will be 50/50. All that said, let me dig a bit and I'll give it a shot. I would not expect either of these games to be lopsided blowouts.

My gut tells me not to bet anything after the divisional round except silly prop bets in the superbowl. NE/Denver is going to be especially tough to call for a number of reasons. Both teams demonstrated over the weekend that they are quite capable of beating good teams without playing they way they're expected to (leaning on Manning/Brady).