2013 NFL Thread

[dmhenderson]

Jay Gruden named new head coach of the Redskins

[Haboob]

[b1adesofcha0s]

Well at least he can't bring Dalton with him :|

[Haboob]

He'd be a step up from RGIII.

[dmhenderson]

Gonna give myself props here because:

SanFran at Carolina(+2):
Verdict: 9ers and the points all day.
Outcome: Winner. Wasn't close.

Indy at New England(-7):
Verdict: NE and the points. Shouldn't be super high-scoring but I figure the pats should win by 10+. Watch the weather in this one. If NE decides to have a blizzard, all bets are off.
Outcome: Winner despite the fact that I put Robert Mathis on the Pats for some reason. I had the flu, give me a break. Scoring and analysis played out exactly as I called it. 6 rushing TDs for the Pats - 'natch.

New Orleans at Seattle(-8)
Verdict: Seattle to win but maybe not to cover. 8 is a big number.
Outcome: Push. Called the outcome perfectly.

San Diego at Denver (-10):
Verdict: To quote Ron Burgundy, "Go **** yourself, San Diego". I have no idea. Don't bet this game.
Outcome: Played out like it logically should have but I still wouldn't have bet it.

If anyone (legally} bet money on any of these games, you owe me a beer or two.

[dmhenderson]

Originally Posted by dmhenderson

San Diego at Denver (-10):
Verdict: To quote Ron Burgundy, "Go **** yourself, San Diego". I have no idea. Don't bet this game.
Outcome: Played out like it logically should have but I still wouldn't have bet it.

Aaand yeah. This is exactly why you never bet on or against the Bolts.

[MC]

well that didnt go as planned........... you cant have 2 goal line stands amonst other things and expect to play for the NFC championship

[exsanity]

Originally Posted by dmhenderson

Gonna give myself props here because:

SanFran at Carolina(+2):
Verdict: 9ers and the points all day.
Outcome: Winner. Wasn't close.

Indy at New England(-7):
Verdict: NE and the points. Shouldn't be super high-scoring but I figure the pats should win by 10+. Watch the weather in this one. If NE decides to have a blizzard, all bets are off.
Outcome: Winner despite the fact that I put Robert Mathis on the Pats for some reason. I had the flu, give me a break. Scoring and analysis played out exactly as I called it. 6 rushing TDs for the Pats - 'natch.

New Orleans at Seattle(-8)
Verdict: Seattle to win but maybe not to cover. 8 is a big number.
Outcome: Push. Called the outcome perfectly.

San Diego at Denver (-10):
Verdict: To quote Ron Burgundy, "Go **** yourself, San Diego". I have no idea. Don't bet this game.
Outcome: Played out like it logically should have but I still wouldn't have bet it.

If anyone (legally} bet money on any of these games, you owe me a beer or two.

I honestly thought Carolina would give San Fran a game at least.

[b1adesofcha0s]

Brady vs Manning with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. It's gonna be epic!

[MC]

Originally Posted by exsanity

I honestly thought Carolina would give San Fran a game at least.

we gave them a decent half

[LMBmikeZ]

Originally Posted by b1adesofcha0s

Brady vs Manning with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. It's gonna be epic!

it will most likely be a good offensive shootout

[exsanity]

Originally Posted by dmhenderson

Aaand yeah. This is exactly why you never bet on or against the Bolts.

So, what is your take on this weekend's games?

[Xplicit97]

Next week will be a fierce game at the CLINK with my Hawks against the SF 40whiners for the NFC championship. Then you have Denver vs Pats at Sports Authority my picks.. Hawks with Dangerous, and the infamous Legion of Boom! Then it'll be Peyton and the Broncos over cry baby Brady and the Pats... Sorry guys its gonna be a Hawks V.S Broncos Superbowl.. Dangerous match up in my house... lol

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 2

[dmhenderson]

Originally Posted by exsanity

So, what is your take on this weekend's games?

These are going to be tougher to call.

The 4 teams that remain were/are the best 4 teams in the playoffs (sorry Carolina) and both matchups have a blood feud/rivalry component which will make them harder to pick. The problem with championship games/superbowls is that point spreads become fairly meaningless and realistically, you're looking at a pick'em regardless of spread. Sure, that makes the underdog seem more attractive but the human brain does not process probability all that well - so just assume your chances of winning will be 50/50. All that said, let me dig a bit and I'll give it a shot. I would not expect either of these games to be lopsided blowouts.

My gut tells me not to bet anything after the divisional round except silly prop bets in the superbowl. NE/Denver is going to be especially tough to call for a number of reasons. Both teams demonstrated over the weekend that they are quite capable of beating good teams without playing they way they're expected to (leaning on Manning/Brady).

[dmhenderson]

Originally Posted by exsanity

So, what is your take on this weekend's games?

Ok here we go.

Pats at Broncos (-5 to 5 1/2 depending on who you ask. O/U 56 1/2 lmao):

I'm going to be honest with you here. I hate this game a lot for many reasons. Did you know both the Patriots and Broncos are both missing 7+ starters from their lineups? Even the guys that are participating are dinged up:

Patriots - Broncos Injury Report
*Note that the injury report does not show the 12318321 players that have already been ruled out prior to this week.

Motherf'ing Tom Brady missed practice today because he's sick. If he has the same flu/virus thing I had, bet everything on the Broncos. Then again, MJ played pretty well with a fever back in the day so...

I mean, for christ's sake, the Pats are a 2 TE passing team without a starting TE. I have no idea what to make of that. Both teams have middle of the road to crappy defenses that cause the occasional turnover (nod going to Denver). Both teams are going to throw the ball all over the place. Both teams discovered last week that they can run the ball "just because".

Expect the gloves to come off. Neither team is going to waste time establishing the run. The run game will be a nice side note to 300+ yard passing performances by both QBs but whoever wins this will be the team holding the ball last.

The weather in Denver this weekend? A balmy 60 degrees without a cloud in the sky.

This is going to be a scoregasm. The only way this gets out of hand is if Brady is super sick and implodes and somehow, I'm betting this is more traditional Belichick BS anyway.

Verdict: I would not bet this game with YOUR money but if you made me pick, I would take Denver to win straight up but betting-wise, take NE + the points and the over. Yes, the over.



SanFran at Seattle (-3 1/2, O/U 39 1/2):

If I were to bet a game this weekend, it'd be this one. Some interesting betting line factoids for those who don't know:
-The home team automatically gets 3 points for playing at home
-Seattle is the ONLY team in the league that actually gets an extra point for playing at home because of their crowd noise. Seriously.
-So that means that all things being equal, the 9ers are actually favored by a half point.
-A half point means nothing.

So, You have two "new breed" QBs, two teams that pride themselves on defense, a divisional rivalry game, a payback game from last year's playoffs and ...man this makes my head hurt.

My take: Both teams will get after the QB. I expect Kaepernick to get shut down hard. Both of the worst games of Kaepernick's career have come against the Seahawks at Seattle. Seattle is the one freaking team in the league that has a secondary that can get physical enough with SanFran's enormous receivers to do damage. Richard Sherman is a dirty, cheating douchebag but unfortunately, he and his smirking chucklefuck buddies are talented. They're going to stick him on Davis and beat the hell out of him.

Very quickly, SanFran is going to have to lean on their running game and I'm not sure Frank Gore's poor plastic knees can take the abuse. Once that breaks down, Seattle's D will start forcing turnovers when all Kaepernick has left are shitty outside dump passes and the corners start jumping routes.

Did you know Russell Wilson has less than a 60 percent completion percentage over the 2nd half of the season? Now ask if Seattle cares (not that 60% is bad - but he's no Brady/Manning).
*Yes, I know Brady is at like 60.3% right now but remember that the beginning of their season was pretty terrible and he didn't come on until late.

I also believe that the 9ers corners can be exploited. Not that Seattle has the strongest WR corps, but they do have a lot of targets which brings me to...

Marshawn Lynch is the X factor. If he has a big game, this could get ugly fast.

Verdict: Seattle to win, the points and the under. For the record, I don't feel as good about the under as I do about seattle covering.




Obligatory disclaimer: 1) I don't feel as good about either of these games as I did my picks last week. 2) I don't advocate betting money on games and I am not responsible if you foolishly take my advice.