2013 NFL Thread

[dmhenderson]

SD to win the superbowl? No chance you got 40/1 to win the divisional round.

[Haboob]

Originally Posted by dmhenderson

SD to win the superbowl? No chance you got 40/1 to win the divisional round.

Yeah, the SB, that's why I'm rooting for them. Otherwise I could give two ***** about the AFC.

Edit: I forgot Indy was still in, I guess I could root for them. I don't hate the Colts.

[dmhenderson]

**DISCLAIMER**
Don't cry to me if I'm wrong but here's my take on next week's games. I'm not advocating betting your hard-earned parts funds on games BUT if you live in Vegas and feel the need for a little action next weekend, here's my take:

I'll do these in order of picks I like to picks that I don't:

SanFran at Carolina(-2): Now remember, you get 3 points for playing at home. I don't see this being close. Carolina specializes in rushing the passer and using their defense to create favorable field position. Problem is, Kapernick has demonstrated (exhibit A being yesterday) that he functions just fine under pressure and is arguable more dangerous out of the pocket than inside it. I bet they go to a lot of read option nonsense to screw with the Panther's vaunted pass rush. Carolina's undersized and banged up DBs have to match up against a surging Crabtree, Boldin and one of the most dominant TEs in the league (Vernon Davis). All 3 of those dudes are enormous, physical, "kick you in the teeth" receivers. Oh and Frank Gore. There's also Frank Gore.

Verdict: 9ers and the points all day.


Indy at New England(-7): Even Gronkless, the Pats are more than a match for the Colts in the playoffs. Barring another bizarro injury game, the Pats will take the Colts apart. NE will look to immediately shut down Hilton and force Luck to throw shitty dump passes to Fleener in the flat where Mathis can beat the hell out of him all day long. The Colts can't really run the ball. Richardson has been an inexplicably retarded bust. I still can't quite get my head around that - and their main running threat is 5"10 Donald Brown. The Pats are going to pound the ball down Indy's throat and let Brady be Brady. The rest should figure itself out. NE is just a different team in the playoffs* (unless they're playing the Jets for some reason).

Verdict: NE and the points. Shouldn't be super high-scoring but I figure the pats should win by 10+. Watch the weather in this one. If NE decides to have a blizzard, all bets are off.


New Orleans at Seattle(-8): This really is a no brainer. NO features undersized and/or slow RBs and Jimmy Graham. Their receivers overall do not match up well with the Seahawks punishing/big/physical secondary. Look for seattle to shut down the run, trash the Saints questionable O line, and force Brees into bad throws. I'm sure ~asshole4lye~ Sherman and company are salivating. Basically they need to figure out how to shut down Graham but other than that, this is Seattle all the way. Wilson shouldn't have much trouble against NO's D and I'd expect the Saints to wear out quickly as I would expect their defense to be on the field quite a bit. Now tack onto all of this that Seattle is probably one of (if not the most) unpleasant places to play a postseason game and I'd say the deck is stacked in Seattle's favor.

Verdict: Seattle to win but maybe not to cover. 8 is a big number.


San Diego at Denver (-10): Yes, Denver is favored by 10 freaking points. No, I will not bet this game. Eat sh*t San Diego. Anyone else and Denver would be a lock. Manning is putting up godly numbers especially at home and San Diego's defense is piss poor. Go ahead, name one dude in the Chargers' secondary without looking it up. I'll wait. Yeah so anyway, on paper there is absolutely no way San Diego is even in this game. They're outmatched at almost every position, San Diego's receivers and RBs are average to bad. Phillip Rivers is…Phillip Rivers. Gates is old. There's no way (absolutely none) San Diego should even be competitive but those fuckers will find a way to win this game or at least scare the crap out of people. Said this before and I'll say it again, The Chargers lost to the Texans, Redskins, Dolphins and Titans but somehow beat Denver, Indy and the Chiefs (twice).

Verdict: To quote Ron Burgundy, "Go **** yourself, San Diego". I have no idea. Don't bet this game.

[exsanity]

Originally Posted by dmhenderson

**DISCLAIMER**
Don't cry to me if I'm wrong but here's my take on next week's games. I'm not advocating betting your hard-earned parts funds on games BUT if you live in Vegas and feel the need for a little action next weekend, here's my take:

I'll do these in order of picks I like to picks that I don't:

SanFran at Carolina(-2): Now remember, you get 3 points for playing at home. I don't see this being close. Carolina specializes in rushing the passer and using their defense to create favorable field position. Problem is, Kapernick has demonstrated (exhibit A being yesterday) that he functions just fine under pressure and is arguable more dangerous out of the pocket than inside it. I bet they go to a lot of read option nonsense to screw with the Panther's vaunted pass rush. Carolina's undersized and banged up DBs have to match up against a surging Crabtree, Boldin and one of the most dominant TEs in the league (Vernon Davis). All 3 of those dudes are enormous, physical, "kick you in the teeth" receivers. Oh and Frank Gore. There's also Frank Gore.

Verdict: 9ers and the points all day.


Indy at New England(-7): Even Gronkless, the Pats are more than a match for the Colts in the playoffs. Barring another bizarro injury game, the Pats will take the Colts apart. NE will look to immediately shut down Hilton and force Luck to throw shitty dump passes to Fleener in the flat where Mathis can beat the hell out of him all day long. The Colts can't really run the ball. Richardson has been an inexplicably retarded bust. I still can't quite get my head around that - and their main running threat is 5"10 Donald Brown. The Pats are going to pound the ball down Indy's throat and let Brady be Brady. The rest should figure itself out. NE is just a different team in the playoffs* (unless they're playing the Jets for some reason).

Verdict: NE and the points. Shouldn't be super high-scoring but I figure the pats should win by 10+. Watch the weather in this one. If NE decides to have a blizzard, all bets are off.


New Orleans at Seattle(-8): This really is a no brainer. NO features undersized and/or slow RBs and Jimmy Graham. Their receivers overall do not match up well with the Seahawks punishing/big/physical secondary. Look for seattle to shut down the run, trash the Saints questionable O line, and force Brees into bad throws. I'm sure ~asshole4lye~ Sherman and company are salivating. Basically they need to figure out how to shut down Graham but other than that, this is Seattle all the way. Wilson shouldn't have much trouble against NO's D and I'd expect the Saints to wear out quickly as I would expect their defense to be on the field quite a bit. Now tack onto all of this that Seattle is probably one of (if not the most) unpleasant places to play a postseason game and I'd say the deck is stacked in Seattle's favor.

Verdict: Seattle to win but maybe not to cover. 8 is a big number.


San Diego at Denver (-10): Yes, Denver is favored by 10 freaking points. No, I will not bet this game. Eat sh*t San Diego. Anyone else and Denver would be a lock. Manning is putting up godly numbers especially at home and San Diego's defense is piss poor. Go ahead, name one dude in the Chargers' secondary without looking it up. I'll wait. Yeah so anyway, on paper there is absolutely no way San Diego is even in this game. They're outmatched at almost every position, San Diego's receivers and RBs are average to bad. Phillip Rivers is…Phillip Rivers. Gates is old. There's no way (absolutely none) San Diego should even be competitive but those fuckers will find a way to win this game or at least scare the crap out of people. Said this before and I'll say it again, The Chargers lost to the Texans, Redskins, Dolphins and Titans but somehow beat Denver, Indy and the Chiefs (twice).

Verdict: To quote Ron Burgundy, "Go **** yourself, San Diego". I have no idea. Don't bet this game.

Love the breakdown. Entertaining read.

San Fran at Carolina will be the only interesting game this weekend, imo. No way NO walks out of Seattle with a W. Only way SD beats Denver at home is to keep the ball out of Manning's hands because he will score.

[dmhenderson]

Gonna give myself props here because:

SanFran at Carolina(+2):
Verdict: 9ers and the points all day.
Outcome: Winner. Wasn't close.

Indy at New England(-7):
Verdict: NE and the points. Shouldn't be super high-scoring but I figure the pats should win by 10+. Watch the weather in this one. If NE decides to have a blizzard, all bets are off.
Outcome: Winner despite the fact that I put Robert Mathis on the Pats for some reason. I had the flu, give me a break. Scoring and analysis played out exactly as I called it. 6 rushing TDs for the Pats - 'natch.

New Orleans at Seattle(-8)
Verdict: Seattle to win but maybe not to cover. 8 is a big number.
Outcome: Push. Called the outcome perfectly.

San Diego at Denver (-10):
Verdict: To quote Ron Burgundy, "Go **** yourself, San Diego". I have no idea. Don't bet this game.
Outcome: Played out like it logically should have but I still wouldn't have bet it.

If anyone (legally} bet money on any of these games, you owe me a beer or two.

[dmhenderson]

Originally Posted by dmhenderson

San Diego at Denver (-10):
Verdict: To quote Ron Burgundy, "Go **** yourself, San Diego". I have no idea. Don't bet this game.
Outcome: Played out like it logically should have but I still wouldn't have bet it.

Aaand yeah. This is exactly why you never bet on or against the Bolts.

[exsanity]

Originally Posted by dmhenderson

Aaand yeah. This is exactly why you never bet on or against the Bolts.

So, what is your take on this weekend's games?

[dmhenderson]

Originally Posted by exsanity

So, what is your take on this weekend's games?

These are going to be tougher to call.

The 4 teams that remain were/are the best 4 teams in the playoffs (sorry Carolina) and both matchups have a blood feud/rivalry component which will make them harder to pick. The problem with championship games/superbowls is that point spreads become fairly meaningless and realistically, you're looking at a pick'em regardless of spread. Sure, that makes the underdog seem more attractive but the human brain does not process probability all that well - so just assume your chances of winning will be 50/50. All that said, let me dig a bit and I'll give it a shot. I would not expect either of these games to be lopsided blowouts.

My gut tells me not to bet anything after the divisional round except silly prop bets in the superbowl. NE/Denver is going to be especially tough to call for a number of reasons. Both teams demonstrated over the weekend that they are quite capable of beating good teams without playing they way they're expected to (leaning on Manning/Brady).

[dmhenderson]

Originally Posted by exsanity

So, what is your take on this weekend's games?

Ok here we go.

Pats at Broncos (-5 to 5 1/2 depending on who you ask. O/U 56 1/2 lmao):

I'm going to be honest with you here. I hate this game a lot for many reasons. Did you know both the Patriots and Broncos are both missing 7+ starters from their lineups? Even the guys that are participating are dinged up:

Patriots - Broncos Injury Report
*Note that the injury report does not show the 12318321 players that have already been ruled out prior to this week.

Motherf'ing Tom Brady missed practice today because he's sick. If he has the same flu/virus thing I had, bet everything on the Broncos. Then again, MJ played pretty well with a fever back in the day so...

I mean, for christ's sake, the Pats are a 2 TE passing team without a starting TE. I have no idea what to make of that. Both teams have middle of the road to crappy defenses that cause the occasional turnover (nod going to Denver). Both teams are going to throw the ball all over the place. Both teams discovered last week that they can run the ball "just because".

Expect the gloves to come off. Neither team is going to waste time establishing the run. The run game will be a nice side note to 300+ yard passing performances by both QBs but whoever wins this will be the team holding the ball last.

The weather in Denver this weekend? A balmy 60 degrees without a cloud in the sky.

This is going to be a scoregasm. The only way this gets out of hand is if Brady is super sick and implodes and somehow, I'm betting this is more traditional Belichick BS anyway.

Verdict: I would not bet this game with YOUR money but if you made me pick, I would take Denver to win straight up but betting-wise, take NE + the points and the over. Yes, the over.



SanFran at Seattle (-3 1/2, O/U 39 1/2):

If I were to bet a game this weekend, it'd be this one. Some interesting betting line factoids for those who don't know:
-The home team automatically gets 3 points for playing at home
-Seattle is the ONLY team in the league that actually gets an extra point for playing at home because of their crowd noise. Seriously.
-So that means that all things being equal, the 9ers are actually favored by a half point.
-A half point means nothing.

So, You have two "new breed" QBs, two teams that pride themselves on defense, a divisional rivalry game, a payback game from last year's playoffs and ...man this makes my head hurt.

My take: Both teams will get after the QB. I expect Kaepernick to get shut down hard. Both of the worst games of Kaepernick's career have come against the Seahawks at Seattle. Seattle is the one freaking team in the league that has a secondary that can get physical enough with SanFran's enormous receivers to do damage. Richard Sherman is a dirty, cheating douchebag but unfortunately, he and his smirking chucklefuck buddies are talented. They're going to stick him on Davis and beat the hell out of him.

Very quickly, SanFran is going to have to lean on their running game and I'm not sure Frank Gore's poor plastic knees can take the abuse. Once that breaks down, Seattle's D will start forcing turnovers when all Kaepernick has left are shitty outside dump passes and the corners start jumping routes.

Did you know Russell Wilson has less than a 60 percent completion percentage over the 2nd half of the season? Now ask if Seattle cares (not that 60% is bad - but he's no Brady/Manning).
*Yes, I know Brady is at like 60.3% right now but remember that the beginning of their season was pretty terrible and he didn't come on until late.

I also believe that the 9ers corners can be exploited. Not that Seattle has the strongest WR corps, but they do have a lot of targets which brings me to...

Marshawn Lynch is the X factor. If he has a big game, this could get ugly fast.

Verdict: Seattle to win, the points and the under. For the record, I don't feel as good about the under as I do about seattle covering.




Obligatory disclaimer: 1) I don't feel as good about either of these games as I did my picks last week. 2) I don't advocate betting money on games and I am not responsible if you foolishly take my advice.

[exsanity]

Originally Posted by dmhenderson

Gonna give myself props here because:

SanFran at Carolina(+2):
Verdict: 9ers and the points all day.
Outcome: Winner. Wasn't close.

Indy at New England(-7):
Verdict: NE and the points. Shouldn't be super high-scoring but I figure the pats should win by 10+. Watch the weather in this one. If NE decides to have a blizzard, all bets are off.
Outcome: Winner despite the fact that I put Robert Mathis on the Pats for some reason. I had the flu, give me a break. Scoring and analysis played out exactly as I called it. 6 rushing TDs for the Pats - 'natch.

New Orleans at Seattle(-8)
Verdict: Seattle to win but maybe not to cover. 8 is a big number.
Outcome: Push. Called the outcome perfectly.

San Diego at Denver (-10):
Verdict: To quote Ron Burgundy, "Go **** yourself, San Diego". I have no idea. Don't bet this game.
Outcome: Played out like it logically should have but I still wouldn't have bet it.

If anyone (legally} bet money on any of these games, you owe me a beer or two.

I honestly thought Carolina would give San Fran a game at least.

[MC]

Originally Posted by exsanity

I honestly thought Carolina would give San Fran a game at least.

we gave them a decent half

[Haboob]

SD beat Denver in Denver this year though. Division rivalries are nuts, throw away all the "on paper" stats.

I'd take SD and the points for sure.

[dmhenderson]

Originally Posted by Haboob

SD beat Denver in Denver this year though. Division rivalries are nuts, throw away all the "on paper" stats.

I'd take SD and the points for sure.

Re-read what I wrote about that game though. I acknowledged that they beat Denver. San Diego doesn't make a lick of goddamned sense. Logic tells me that San Diego absolutely cannot do it twice but I'm not going to roll the dice. If San Diego wins it won't be by much. If Denver wins, it should be by a landslide but those two statements taken together = do not bet this game. If I had a gun to my head, I'd take San Diego and the points but Denver will be looking for payback and this could very well be a blowout. I mean seriously, go from position to position and compare teams. It's not even close.

[MC]

im obviously picking carolina this weekend especially since we have steve smith back. I think as long as we can hold them and not play from behind we can take it!
I want the saints to win as well even though im a casual seahawks fan because I want the NFC championship game to be in Charlotte!!

AFC should be fairly routine. ive got denver and new england all the way

[shadoquad]

Car-SF should be a great game.