The Z's future

m4a1mustang · 11-30-2011, 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rui Z

I actually think the whole alternative fuel revolution (as in most people, >50%, in america will be driving them) will happen alot sooner than that (~10 years). Technology is moving so fast. Most people care more about price than anything else about a car. When gas prices go up more and more, alternative fueled cars will become the cheaper option.

I think it will happen quickly too, I just don't think it's going to be a very fast transition to get all of the gas powered cars off the road.

Rui Z · 11-30-2011, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UNKNOWN_370

That goes right back to when I said, you can change all the vehicles out there but the sports car should maintain its tradition as a gas engine. I know the reality will be that my family sedan or hauler will be EV. But now we are talking sports cars. Its a niche market that can remain gasoline for way longer than all other transpportation markets.

The less people use gasoline, the higher the gas cost per individual will be to maintain the infrastructures for gasoline production. Im not gonna drive a Z if it costs $20/gallon of gasoline.

m4a1mustang · 11-30-2011, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dAvenue

You won't be saying that when this country can finally become energy independent. When that era comes, gas prices will drop drastically. There are too many factors at play to know for all certainty that combustion engines are doomed.

Well, at present there isn't a snowball's chance in hell for domestic oil. So there's really no reason to think we'll be supplying our own oil anytime soon.

Keep in mind oil is priced in dollars, and the Federal Reserve really likes a weak dollar. So take away the demand situation and you've also got inflationary pressures. Gas is really going to run with the next round of quantitative easing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by UNKNOWN_370

That goes right back to when I said, you can change all the vehicles out there but the sports car should maintain its tradition as a gas engine. I know the reality will be that my family sedan or hauler will be EV. But now we are talking sports cars. Its a niche market that can remain gasoline for way longer than all other transpportation markets.

Sports cars tend to be at the forefront of technology. I think it's more likely for sports cars to make the jump to EV (or other fuel) at the same time as, if not before, the average family car. I doubt they'd linger if the world was in the process of making the switch to EV just so they could carry on some tradition.

m4a1mustang · 11-30-2011, 05:10 PM

Then again we could all be wrong. 50+ years ago everyone was saying cars would be flying by now...

Rui Z · 11-30-2011, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by m4a1mustang

Then again we could all be wrong. 50+ years ago everyone was saying cars would be flying by now...

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dAvenue · 11-30-2011, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by m4a1mustang

Well, at present there isn't a snowball's chance in hell for domestic oil. So there's really no reason to think we'll be supplying our own oil anytime soon.

Care to explain why there is not a chance in hell for this?

I could say the same thing about EV vehicles. They are more expensive to manufacture, cost more to the consumer, produce dismal sales figures and do not contribute to a company's profit margin. Electric vehicles certainly do not exist to make money. The only reason they exist is to satisfy government regulations that dictate a company's overall carbon emissions score; EV cars lower that score.

Without question, the vast majority of money is made from sale of gasoline vehicles. Based on that alone, I can safely say there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that combustion engines will be obsolete in 30 years. The market for EV is too small and the cost of producing them is too large.

dAvenue · 11-30-2011, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by m4a1mustang

Then again we could all be wrong. 50+ years ago everyone was saying cars would be flying by now...

So true

b1adesofcha0s · 11-30-2011, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by m4a1mustang

Well, at present there isn't a snowball's chance in hell for domestic oil. So there's really no reason to think we'll be supplying our own oil anytime soon.

Keep in mind oil is priced in dollars, and the Federal Reserve really likes a weak dollar. So take away the demand situation and you've also got inflationary pressures. Gas is really going to run with the next round of quantitative easing.

Sports cars tend to be at the forefront of technology. I think it's more likely for sports cars to make the jump to EV (or other fuel) at the same time as, if not before, the average family car. I doubt they'd linger if the world was in the process of making the switch to EV just so they could carry on some tradition.

It's like the transition from manual to dual clutch transmissions in modern day supercars. All the "enthusiasts" hated the thought of giving up a manual for an auto. If executed the right way, they feel the difference in performance when they drive it and they change their minds about it. Cars like the GT-R and Ferrari 458 are perfect examples of this. Now we're getting DCT's in hot hatches and other small cars as well.

Rui Z · 11-30-2011, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dAvenue

Care to explain why there is not a chance in hell for this?

I could say the same thing about EV vehicles. They are more expensive to manufacture, cost more to the consumer, produce dismal sales figures and do not contribute to a company's profit margin. Electric vehicles certainly do not exist to make money. The only reason they exist is to satisfy government regulations that dictate a company's overall carbon emissions score; EV cars lower that score.

Without question, the vast majority of money is made from sale of gasoline vehicles. Based on that alone, I can safely say there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that combustion engines will be obsolete in 30 years. The market for EV is too small and the cost of producing them is too large.

But you are assuming no advances in technology or reduction in electric vehicle price or gasoline price increases.

b1adesofcha0s · 11-30-2011, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dAvenue

Care to explain why there is not a chance in hell for this?

I could say the same thing about EV vehicles. They are more expensive to manufacture, cost more to the consumer, produce dismal sales figures and do not contribute to a company's profit margin. Electric vehicles certainly do not exist to make money. The only reason they exist is to satisfy government regulations that dictate a company's overall carbon emissions score; EV cars lower that score.

Without question, the vast majority of money is made from sale of gasoline vehicles. Based on that alone, I can safely say there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that combustion engines will be obsolete in 30 years. The market for EV is too small and the cost of producing them is too large.

That may be true for today, but the more they sell and develop, the cheaper it will be to produce them. Eventually the manufacturing cost will be enough to make them comparable to gasoline powered cars.

Look at the PS3 for example. When it came out, it was $600. A lot of people said they weren't interested due to the high price tag. After a couple years of making them Sony was able to reduce the manufacturing cost and offer them at a lower price to the consumer. This boosted sales causing the cycle to repeat and Sony lowered the price again once they made it even cheaper to manufacture them. 5 years later, PS3's cost what like $150? That's 25% of what they cost when they came out just 5 years ago.

dAvenue · 11-30-2011, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rui Z

But you are assuming no advances in technology or reduction in electric vehicle price or gasoline price increases.

Nope. Technology advances every day. Everyone knows that...so this is a given IMO.

Quote:

Originally Posted by b1adesofcha0s

That may be true for today, but the more they sell and develop, the cheaper it will be to produce them. Eventually the manufacturing cost will be enough to make them comparable to gasoline powered cars.

Look at the PS3 for example. When it came out, it was $600. A lot of people said they weren't interested due to the high price tag. After a couple years of making them Sony was able to reduce the manufacturing cost and offer them at a lower price to the consumer. This boosted sales causing the cycle to repeat and Sony lowered the price again once they made it even cheaper to manufacture them. 5 years later, PS3's cost what like $150? That's 25% of what they cost when they came out just 5 years ago.

This is different because the PS3 had big demand. Electric vehicles, on the other hand, do not.

b1adesofcha0s · 11-30-2011, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dAvenue

This is different because the PS3 had big demand. Electric vehicles, on the other hand, do not.

I realize it's different, but it's still a little similar. The demand for EVs is low because of cost. If the cost goes down, the demand will go up. Just look at what happened with hybrid cars. When the cost came down, more and more people wanted to buy hybrids. There are still some technological limitations with EVs, the major one being range, but once those are taken care of the demand will be there. I think it's safe to assume that the demand for EVs will be comparable to those of hybrids today, once they become more affordable.

Spikuh · 11-30-2011, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dAvenue

You won't be saying that when this country can finally become energy independent. When that era comes, gas prices will drop drastically. There are too many factors at play to know for all certainty that combustion engines are doomed.

You will probably be holding your breath for quite some time waiting for the US to become energy independant. The multi-nationals are not going to let this market go without a very hard fight. I agree that internal combustion will be around for quite some time though.

dAvenue · 11-30-2011, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by b1adesofcha0s

I realize it's different, but it's still a little similar. The demand for EVs is low because of cost. If the cost goes down, the demand will go up. Just look at what happened with hybrid cars. When the cost came down, more and more people wanted to buy hybrids. There are still some technological limitations with EVs, the major one being range, but once those are taken care of the demand will be there. I think it's safe to assume that the demand for EVs will be comparable to those of hybrids today, once they become more affordable.

That's a fair point but it should be noted that manufacturing hybrids meant big tax breaks for Acme company. If the government wasn't subsidizing them, the consumer costs would still be very high and the demand would still be very low. Given that the federal government is broke and it needs to cut spending, subsidies like this one should be on the chopping block. The market would then truly dictate the progress of such vehicles, EV's included. However, if the fed doesn't cut it, then you have a good argument in favor of EV's.

ZMan8 · 11-30-2011, 05:47 PM

One of the things I love most about my Z is the sound/feel of the engine. Im all for better future, electric vehicles, etc. but I probably wouldn't want an electric sports car (even with instant torque). If they go that route, that will make my Z more of collectible.

11-30-2011, 05:10 PM	#64 (permalink)
m4a1mustang A True Z Fanatic Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Northern VA Posts: 55,385 Drives: on two wheels Rep Power: 6962	Then again we could all be wrong. 50+ years ago everyone was saying cars would be flying by now... __________________ - Steve Zs & Coffee - Saturdays at 10AM in Fairfax, VA and Columbia, MD (Click the banner!) LIKE us on Facebook!

11-30-2011, 05:47 PM	#75 (permalink)
ZMan8 A True Z Fanatic Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 5,844 Drives: 10 370z 40th M6 Rep Power: 659	One of the things I love most about my Z is the sound/feel of the engine. Im all for better future, electric vehicles, etc. but I probably wouldn't want an electric sports car (even with instant torque). If they go that route, that will make my Z more of collectible. __________________ 2010 370Z 40 Anniv., 6 MT \| Fast Intentions \| Swift Springs \| SPC \| Z1Motorsports \| JWM \| Redline Oils \| 35% Window Tint 2015 Mazda6 \| 370ZChicago: Chicago Area Cars & Coffee

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