Nissan 370Z Forum  

The New “What did you do with your Z today” (with off topic replies)

Originally Posted by DaveZ03 My .02 is I think extrapolation bias is playing into this on both fronts. Media is reporting, using recent data and comparing that to data from

Go Back   Nissan 370Z Forum > Nissan 370Z General Area > The Lounge (Off Topic)


Like Tree9423Likes

 
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
Prev Previous Post   Next Post Next
Old 08-15-2023, 05:58 PM   #10 (permalink)
A True Z Fanatic
 
vtec to vvel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: 813
Posts: 3,928
Drives: 13 Z
Rep Power: 502910
vtec to vvel has a reputation beyond reputevtec to vvel has a reputation beyond reputevtec to vvel has a reputation beyond reputevtec to vvel has a reputation beyond reputevtec to vvel has a reputation beyond reputevtec to vvel has a reputation beyond reputevtec to vvel has a reputation beyond reputevtec to vvel has a reputation beyond reputevtec to vvel has a reputation beyond reputevtec to vvel has a reputation beyond reputevtec to vvel has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveZ03 View Post
My .02 is I think extrapolation bias is playing into this on both fronts. Media is reporting, using recent data and comparing that to data from the last 2-3 years, where rates plummeted to all time lows, driving the market to be red hot. Optically, this seems to be driving their narrative. Potential buyers are also still in a "wait and see" mindset, hoping that when rates drop they will be in the aforementioned range. Unfortunately for both, rates will never hit that low again, based off of current data models, and this approach to the housing market should be adjusted accordingly. Meaning, to your point, rates are in better ranges than in previous decades with current income levels on the rise.
On a side note, I also think these headlines are on purpose, to engage interaction in order to up that ad revenue on their webpages. My .02 though, not stating fact, just opinion.
The reason the Feds dropped the rates so low is to prevent from the economy crashing from COVID19 (i.e. quantitative easing). The low rates isn’t what made the market red hot, but rather the severe shortage of supply (stemming back from the housing crash in the late 2000’s), paired with global supply chain issues. Potential buyers shouldn't be so focused on rates alone, but rather getting a fair rate AND being able to find a home to get under contract in a short-supply environment.

The “wait and see” mentality is what separates the poor, rich, and wealthy (yes, there is a distinct difference between being rich and being wealthy). Real estate is one of the quickest ways to build wealth, and if someone has the means AND ability to buy, they should buy regardless of where rates are. There may be better times to buy, but there is no wrong time to buy real estate.

For example, Person A buys while rates are higher, but doesn’t have to deal with bidding wars, doesn’t have to offer anything over asking price, has the sellers even offer seller credits to offset certain costs (such as closing costs, discount points, repairs, etc.), isn’t expected to waive any contingencies built to protect the buyer, and has the ability to refinance to a lower rate when they drop.

Person B “waits and sees” until rates drop, which takes some time. And if rates did drop, they are having to offer over asking price just to even get their offer noticed (and still likely to get rejected to another higher offer), no chance of negotiating seller credits, is expected to waive certain/maybe all contingencies, and putting in 50+ offers and hoping 1 will get accepted.

I’ve done the math for plenty of clients, and 95% of the time, Person A will have spent way less money overall and not go through an emotional roller coaster (I've had grown-@$$ men cry in person because of the stress of putting in multiple offers and all getting rejected). Person A will also have built significant equity (i.e. wealth) compared to Person B who as only paid 100% interest and someone else’s mortgage by renting.

If people need to wait until rates drop to qualify, then they are not true qualified home buyers. Also, when rates dropped, this yielded to bidding/pricing wars, so someone that only qualified based on low rates would have been outpriced/outbidden anyway (this is where equity and wealth comes into play).

If we have another global pandemic, rates could absolutely drop down low again, though hopefully they know not to keep it as low and as long if that happened.
__________________
Don't like what I post? Too bad. I really don't give a sh!t
vtec to vvel is offline   Reply With Quote
 

Bookmarks


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
The New “What did you do with your Z today” (with off topic replies) XXXX madwi The Lounge (Off Topic) 12731 07-08-2023 04:11 PM
The New “What did you do with your Z today” (with off topic replies) XXXIX Spoiler The Lounge (Off Topic) 10010 07-02-2021 12:02 PM
The new “what did you do to your Z today” (with off topic replies) XXXVIII Spoiler The Lounge (Off Topic) 9999 12-23-2020 06:10 AM
The New “What did you do with your Z today” (with off topic replies) XXXVII Spoiler The Lounge (Off Topic) 9999 09-15-2020 09:07 PM
The New “What did you do with your Z today” (with off topic replies) XXXVI Spoiler The Lounge (Off Topic) 9999 06-10-2020 12:40 AM


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:44 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.6.0 PL2