CoronaVirus

NecioVato

I get the whole 'not wanting to be quarantined' and the issue of the 'well, maybe someone should have asked store owners if they want to close/remain open and allow the public to dictate whether or not the business is a success/failure'. But my questions are this:

1. If you're a governor; shutting down your city/state whatever for a prolonged period of time will raise the unemployment rate, put strain on the govt to have to take care of more people (we already see how that is working out with our current unemployment systems in place); so wouldn't this pretty much guarantee NOT being elected the following term - i mean you don't come back from a 30% unemployment rate etc?

2. At first I was like, okay this sh!t is ridiculous and no way I believe this is as bad as people say but then.....look at the world around us - how much of a sh!t show Italy is/was; how ill prepared a lot of govt were as far as handling this. Anyone who compares the US to countries like Sweden etc --> its like they aren't even the size of Texas let alone the US. In other words, I believe that this stuff is bad news - with the ease of travel and how quickly it can spread and no vaccine; just because you're not sick doesn't mean you can't be a-systematic and spread it to those that have low immune systems?

Again, no way do I say we HAVE TO DO THIS or we HAVE TO DO THAT - I really don't know what the answer is; bc with a virus; if we don't all agree to do the same things - it will probably just prolong this sh!t and we will be revisiting it again. Anyway - i never and hate talking politics but just my .02

DaveZ03

If you think times are bad now, if a collapse of infrastructure due to an economic crash far beyond the levels we are experiencing now happens, then sh&* is gonna really hit the fan. I recognize the importance of staying #healthyathome (my states quarantine handle), but it's completely conceivable that our economy can't take much more of this. It is my belief that we can roll out waves of folks returning to the workforce with the less vulnerable leading the way. Also if we are going along with pandoras box of local governments limiting our freedoms, how do we eventually close it?
As Ghost said above, and I'll follow up on, there are not enough tests available to tell whether or not any of us have had it (sans the folks who have met the criteria and actually received a test). Around the beginning of January, for about 24 hours, starting Sunday morning I had a case of the body aches/shivers/fatigue, similar to what some may say are flu-like symptoms. Now whether or not that was Coronavirus is up for debate, all I know is that for about two weeks, I combated a steady dry cough and running nose. So I may or may not have contracted it.
This is likely turning into a seasonal thing that we are just gonna have to combat. While a vaccine is being developed, how do we build herd immunity when the majority of folks are quarantined?

NecioVato

The other part of the equation to what you were feeling is that it was/is during the flu season to begin with. And you are right - there was or there currently isn't enough tests to confirm what people have etc.

I agree with you, I don't know how much more our economy can take. I do think if you are a governor of a state - you want to get people back to work ASAP - not a control issue but more of a 'getting people back to work gets the economy going thus helps you during election time'. Bc as much as the candidate will tout I was dealing with a pandemic - no will give 2 F**ks about the pandemic if they were unemployed or if their business shut down.

My fear is - we open up and we bring people in and we try to go back to normal; but if we see a spike in cases and people getting sick - do we go back to quarantining - i think once we look to 'open' things up; no way we do a 2nd round of quarantine bc sh!t will get crazy for sure.

Ghostvette

You are looking at the wrong numbers. You are comparing deaths with known cases, that will always give an inaccurate number. Even the 'experts' are saying they don't know how many have had this and had either no symptoms/mild symptoms and recovered quickly. Until there is an anti-body test developed, saying that the CCP virus will kill 2-4% of those it infects is ludicrous.

Let's throw some things out, just for chits & giggles.

Average age of person that dies from CCP virus: 75
Average age of people at death during normal times: 75

What can be deduced from those statements? In reality, not a damn thing. People die when the body and spirit gives up, nothing is going to change that. We don't suspend life because people die. I didn't quit living when I lost my grandparents and I'm not going to quit living when my parents pass. If I did that, my dad when come back from the dead and kick my azz.... guaranteed.

I'm not a hard-hearted bastard, (regardless of what others may say)... all I'm saying is that we have allowed a bunch of people that claim to be experts wipe out our lives for no real good reason. I was raised that when you were sick, you stayed home until you were better. You didn't go dragging your sick azz all over the countryside, you didn't drag your sick kids all over creation to cough and sneeze all over everything, you stayed your azz home. How is this different? I'm not sick, I'm not staying home. PERIOD.

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DaveZ03

This. If people take away anything from this towards a positive change, this could have a HUGE impact on how we deal with other pandemics (because there will be others). Sadly, it's highly improbable that enough people will change their behaviors in the future to make any noticeable dent in future outcomes.

JARblue

Best case scenario is a bunch of them die off so we can try to make that dent noticeable in future outcomes

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NecioVato

I'm hoping we learn - from a 'common sense' to also from the way we do business as a whole. To have such a high percentage of our goods made in one place just seems like a disaster waiting to happen. While I know outsourcing is the way of the world, I believe if we are smart, we will look to have multiple countries involved or we will look to make some of these goods here to not deal with shortages etc.

Here was a story in the Dallas Morning News which was interesting but definitely speaks volume of $ > Everything.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/watc...7-guess-again/

ZCanadian

First off, you ARE a hare-hearted bastard. And we love you for it! ;-)

Same numbers difficulty can be made with the flu - you don't REALLY know how many flu cases there are in the US every year. Betting upwards of 80% go unreported because they are relatively mild, They are in part relatively mild because we have vaccines and our immune systems have seen influenza virus before (even if not the particular strain), so your body already has a blueprint for dealing with most cases. In other words, the statistics are VERY MUCH comparable between the two illnesses.

Now, look at absolute numbers. Influenza (flu) kills about 650,000 people around the world annually. This thing has only been known for 5 months, and only started spreading around the globe in seriousness about 3 months ago. It has already claimed 152,000 people, and Russia and India really haven't reported in at all yet. Even without those, the daily death toll is still accelerating. It is on track to kill at least as many people as influenza this year. I'll wager the toll, even with shelter in place rules, is over 1,000,000, and without that it will be many times that.

No question that the economy is in dire straights. But it isn't just the US economy or Canada's. It is everywhere. And all one has to do is ride this out to get back to a relative normal. Otherwise, a lot of people who are perfectly healthy now are going to die. If 75 is your limit, why not just line everyone up at 74 and 364 days and shoot them? I don't know if that average is correct, but there certainly are young victims of this as well. Including doctors who are just doing their jobs and didn't sign up for this either!

As far as infrastructure is concerned, if everybody who runs the power grid in your region comes down with this, you are no better off.

Right now, governments will simply print money to solve the issue, and since everyone is doing the same, it has little impact on the value of the currency. When quantitative easing is reversed, and by how much, is what will determine that.

I agree, if you are sick, stay home. Problems with that in this case are two-fold.
First, you don't know that you are sick for up to 2 weeks (there is some indication that it could be even longer), yet you can already be infecting others by 2 - 5 days after you were exposed.
Second, this is not a cold. It is a deadly disease that humans are not immune to.

ZCanadian

I agree.

Problem is, until this came along the main concern was profit. And that pretty much means to consolidate production in certain areas. Especially areas where there is a lot of reasonably skilled, reliable, low wage labour.

The economic prosperity of most of the world comes from the fact we've enjoyed cheap goods from places like China. This is the other shoe dropping.

Best that this gives us a wake-up call now, and not in a war situation.

cv129

Just wanna reiterate a few things.

Define “sick” - Traditionally, we associate the start of being “sick” as the first sign of symptoms. Covid19 pretty much targets this misconception, that’s why it spreads so fast. By the time a person realizes he/she is sick, virus/droplets have already been spread, since patient can exhibit no symptoms yet, or very little symptoms, or just no symptoms at all. So the early recommendation of “stay home if you are sick” isn’t nearly enough.

On death rate - We should really pay attention to this virus’s long term effect on recovered patents. Early studies have been coming out that it can do permanent damages to various organs. The long term implication is still to be seen.

Comparison to flu - early studies have shown some patients not developing antibody at all, or in such small amount that it won’t provide immunity.

Time line for “recovery” - testing negative does not guarantee a recovered patient is no longer shedding virus. Studies did show nasal discharges and fecal matter still contains virus even after 1-2 weeks of person testing negative. Anybody that gets covid19, however mild the symptoms may be, can easily take weeks to be in the clear again.

Surgical mask or face coverings - they cannot stop airborne covid19 virus from ENTERING, but can definitely limit potential harmful particles that EXIT our mouths, vital to limiting the spread at the source, quarantine or not, social distancing or not.

Summary - we still don’t have a strong grasp on what this does yet. From a health standpoint, it’s not time to relax.

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JARblue

If a disease kills someone is it considered deadly? Humans aren't immune to colds either. That's why we get sick from them. Some people even die from them

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Ghostvette

It's been because of jerk supervisors that threatened people's jobs if they didn't show up for work that probably caused some of this. There is absolutely no need to come to work and contaminate the whole office when you are running a fever, coughing and sneezing.

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JARblue

Nothing has changed... decisions are still being made based on money. You can probably say that's the reason we're in this mess lol

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Spooler

All I know is I had the crud bad in December. Woke up coughing in the middle of the night and broke a damn rib. That hurt. Never had any issues like that before. I got over it and weeks later had the dry cough again and cracked the rib again. Never knew I broke a rib until I went to the Dr. the 2nd time.

ZCanadian

Probably is, and hopefully will make a bad mutation and stop bothering us so.

Your point is correct about herd immunity, But even with the shelter in place orders for 2+ weeks, case numbers are rising. It's all about balancing what health care systems can take. Means how many ICU beds, ventilators, masks, gloves and gowns are available before we open things up, so that when your wife or kid gets it, they can get the best treatment. The alternative is the northern Italy solution, where doctors say "we treat you so you may live, we don't even bother treating you so sorry about your luck". Reality is, if you have a bad enough case of this to warrant intubation, you will not survive without that. And unlike a heart attack or other severe trauma where you may need an ICU bed for a few days, this disease ties these beds up for weeks and weeks for each patient.

Hence, the President's recommendations (as I understand them) involve guidelines for case numbers and trends, and a gradual opening up. That sounds (once you remove the BS media hype and "what the idiot-on-the-street thinks" reporting) to be well advised.