Quote:
Originally Posted by spinhead
Libyan Oil Output Falls by Half
Speculation isn't some mythical beast... prices were where they were with no ripples in the supply. Now there are ripples, prices go up.
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Yes, but the ripples don't justify the percentage increase we've seen in the past couple of weeks. A ripple shouldn't amount to a tsunami. I know oil demand is global, but when you think about it, a small percentage of crude oil from Lybia actually makes it to the US market. We rely heavily on Canada (18%) & Saudi Arabia (11%).
Speculation is very real because the supply hasn't really impacted the global market just yet. Maybe this week, this month or next year, but certainly not two weeks ago. Because the likelyhood is very realistic, the price has increased ahead of the actual demand. The speculators assume that from this point, those who rely on Lybia will go elsewhere thereby increasing demand from other countries who's oil supply is already alocated for. My intent is not downplay the Lybian crisis, because it will affect us sooner or later. I'm just saying, we shouldn't have to pay more until the actual supply decreases. It's like trying to sell a 370z for a million dollars today because it could be worth 2 million a hundred years from now. Thats a bit exagerated, but you get my point?