https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/th...epeat/9715469/
The data that shows Red Bull vs Ferrari in Australia is set for a Jeddah repeat
By:
Alex Kalinauckas
Apr 8, 2022, 8:52 AM
As in Jeddah, Ferrari swept both practice sessions on Friday in Melbourne - although Carlos Sainz Jr and Charles Leclerc this time took turns in pacing FP1 and FP2. But Max Verstappen and Red Bull looked strong on race pace long-runs and, with four DRS zones in play, F1's Albert Park return could produce a similarly enthralling battle to the one seen last time out between the two teams in Jeddah
The majestic Melbourne mob had waited 756 days. All that time since Formula 1 cars should’ve last been running around Albert Park two years ago back at the aborted 2020 season opener. Finally, wonderfully, in opening practice on Friday for the 2022 event, they were back. And a bumper crowd was there to see it.
Here on Friday, 112,466 people packed into the Melbourne track, with bold predictions coming from F1 that the combined weekend attendance level could end up being be the biggest multi-day crowd number in Australian sporting history – even though race day itself cannot be a record due a cap on spectator numbers imposed by the race organiser.
Having endured the world’s longest COVID-19 lockdown and being a sports mad city, Melbourne deserves the returning Australian Grand Prix to be a good one. And, based on the showing from 2022 pacesetters Red Bull and Ferrari so far in practice, all the signs at this stage point to there being a similar battle to the thriller that took place in Jeddah two weeks ago.
FP2 overall order
Pos Driver Team Time Gap
1 Leclerc Ferrari 1m18.978s
2 Verstappen Red Bull 1m19.223s +0.245s
3 Alonso Alpine 1m19.537s +0.559s
4 Bottas Alfa Romeo 1m20.055s +1.077s
5 Norris McLaren 1m20.100s +1.122s
6 Gasly AlphaTauri 1m20.142s +1.164s
7 Russell Mercedes 1m20.212s +1.234s
8 Stroll Aston Martin 1m20.611s +1.633s
9 Magnussen Haas 1m21.191s +2.213s
10 Albon Williams 1m21.912s +2.934s
On headline one-lap pace alone, things look very good for Ferrari.
Charles Leclerc topped FP2 by a healthy margin over Red Bull’s Max Verstappen – his rival for race victory at each of the two races so far this season. And he got there in fewer qualifying simulation efforts compared to the Dutchman, who sacrificed time gathering race fuel load data late in the second one-hour session to try set-up adjustments on his RB18 when running the soft tyres.
Leclerc ended Friday with a 0.245s buffer over Verstappen following their FP2 soft tyre runs
Leclerc ended Friday with a 0.245s buffer over Verstappen following their FP2 soft tyre runs
The red-walled rubber is set to be something of a qualifying special given it is the softest in Pirelli’s range, the C5. The medium, the C3, did show signs of graining during the FP2 long runs here, but this is thought to be mainly down to the track temperature for the second session being 8°C cooler than earlier on Friday (30°C down from 38°C). Large rain clouds had built up over Melbourne, but didn’t end up unleashing anything more than a smattering of spitting over the track.
The lower than expected FP2 temperature – and things are predicted to be hotter for the rest of the weekend, particularly on race day – also means Ferrari can’t get too carried away with its headline pace. Because it looked as if Verstappen didn’t put it all together even on his best lap, with all teams struggling to get the softs into the optimum performance window thanks to the cooldown.
But, conversely, Leclerc said after FP2 that “I don’t think that anyone really put their lap together”. So, it could well be that Ferrari also has more time to find through driver perfection come the sessions that matter in qualifying.
When comparing the speed for Leclerc and Verstappen on their fastest FP2 laps, the Ferrari driver goes from being 0.1s ahead to 0.25s down by the time they brake for the Turn 11 right
Data Autosport has seen suggests that, just like in Jeddah (and further back in Bahrain too), Red Bull is gaining significant time compared to Ferrari on the straights. This is because it is again running its low drag rear wing, which was actually also something of a hinderance to Verstappen at other points in the Albert Park lap.
Compared to Leclerc’s Ferrari, which again is running a high downforce package overall – Leclerc said in Friday’s press conference that “whenever we'll have this [a lower drag package], I think we'll do a step forward” – Verstappen was having to lift off going through the final corner on his fastest lap, per the GPS data we’ve seen.
This is indicative of how the two downforce packages behave – particularly with the close walls on the exit after the medium-speed right-hander in mind for the drivers.
The difference in straight-line speed is particularly stark in a section of Albert Park that isn’t all that straight – the run from the re-profiled Turn 6 right at the start of the middle sector, all the way to the big braking zone at Turn 11, a sequence that includes the second and third of the four DRS zones at the 2022 event.
Red Bull pulls ahead on the straights, but loses ground in the slower corners due to its lower downforce rear wing
Red Bull pulls ahead on the straights, but loses ground in the slower corners due to its lower downforce rear wing
In this run, when comparing the speed for Leclerc and Verstappen on their fastest FP2 laps, the Ferrari driver goes from being 0.1s ahead to 0.25s down by the time they brake for the Turn 11 right – now expected to be the main overtaking point after all the changes made to the track for its return to the F1 calendar.
Leclerc’s higher downforce then gets him back ahead through the rest of the final sector, with the championship leader clocked gaining 0.4s on Verstappen through the slow, meandering Turn 13 left (the penultimate corner here now) alone on their respective best FP2 laps.
This shows just how strong Ferrari is in the slower stuff, but it should also be noted that Verstappen was particularly ill at ease at that point during his soft tyre runs in FP2.
“I also had a car in front of me on my final lap, so that didn't help,” he later explained. “But I think in FP1 and the beginning of FP2 we were lacking a bit of balance. And for the final run we changed the car around a bit and I felt a lot happier.
“We're a tiny bit off Ferrari but I think we can make it a little bit closer. But yeah, they are quick again.”
Medium tyre averages
Pos Team Average Time Laps
1 Red Bull 1m23.162s 7
2 Ferrari 1m23.248s 6
3 Alfa Romeo 1m23.983s 5
4 Mercedes 1m24.200s 6
5 Alpine 1m24.239s 6
6 McLaren 1m24.526s 6
7 Aston Martin 1m25.526s 5
8 Haas 1m25.613s 6
9 Williams 1m25.720s 6
*N/A AlphaTauri
In the long-run averages on the medium tyres above, surely set to be the compound to start on for the race, the times between the top teams are very close, and come in on comparative stint lengths.
Mercedes can be encouraged by its pace on the medium tyre relative to its soft tyre performance, though it still lagged behind Bottas's Alfa
Mercedes can be encouraged by its pace on the medium tyre relative to its soft tyre performance, though it still lagged behind Bottas's Alfa
As is typical, overall fuel load and engine mode settings for practice must be considered when reading these times, and there’s an added warning this time that the late-FP2 running was disrupted by the red flag caused by Lance Stroll’s Aston Martin shedding part of its left-side top wheel cover.
Traffic was also an issue for all the drivers that logged the times in the table above, which makes relying on their pace as definitive for the race even more tricky than usual, and then there’s the tyre warm-up issue in FP2, which was also a major factor in how quickly drivers could go over a higher-fuel stint.
In the best Mercedes average in the table above, George Russell managed to lap significantly quicker from the fourth tour of his stint, after which he was able keep up the pace even with worn rubber. Autosport understands that this reflects when the tyre temperature came to the Briton, and he was able to kick on as a result.
"At the moment, we're in a vicious circle where the drivers don't have the confidence to carry the speed through the faster corners, and it's that speed that will generate the temperature we desperately need" Andrew Shovlin
Not unsurprisingly, Russell’s squad remains mired in the battle in the pack, which is set to be even bigger (and therefore better) this weekend because so far it seems McLaren is performing better than it did in Bahrain and Jeddah.
In this scrap, Alpine led the way on Friday given Fernando Alonso was able to briefly bother the fight between Red Bull and Ferrari, but the GPS data referenced above also suggests the Spaniard’s car was running in a hotter engine mode compared to both Verstappen and, particularly, Leclerc.
Alonso was gaining time compared to Russell on their best laps on all the straights, which is indicative of a higher engine mode making the difference.
Also, watching trackside from the exit of the second corner during FP1, Autosport observed Alonso and team-mate Esteban Ocon having to hustle their A522s through Turns 1 and 2 (faster and wider for 2022), although Russell and Lewis Hamilton were among the worst for car stability there too. Also, unsurprisingly, the Red Bull and Ferrari cars were the best planted.
Alonso briefly bothered the Ferraris and Red Bulls in FP2, but the Alpine looked a handful to drive
Alonso briefly bothered the Ferraris and Red Bulls in FP2, but the Alpine looked a handful to drive
Mercedes is at least just 0.157s behind Valtteri Bottas’s fourth best overall effort for Alfa Romeo (from the 10 teams) in FP2, with the engine mode caveat for Alpine pointing to a big battle to be the best-of-the-rest third highest placed team in qualifying.
But the Silver Arrows squad seems to have the edge on its midfield rivals in terms of race pace per the times above, with its big problem on one-lap pace on Friday simply being both Russell (who led the way in FP2 for Mercedes) and Hamilton lacking confidence in the high-speed turns and having poor rear grip overall around the course here.
That lack of rear stability was evident to Autosport at our Turn 2 vantage point in FP1 and was then shown best in Hamilton’s FP2 trip through the gravel exiting Turn 12 during the early laps on the medium rubber. There, the seven-time world champion had to battle two big oversteer snaps, which came as he pushed on trying to find the limit.
“We're finding it hard to generate tyre temperature here so that's the big thing we need to work on overnight,” said Mercedes’ director of trackside engineering, Andrew Shovlin. “We were clearly more competitive in the first session than in the cooler conditions of the afternoon session, and the data we're seeing from the car is supporting the fact we're just not hot enough.
“If we can improve that then it's quite possible to find a good amount of grip. But at the moment, we're in a vicious circle where the drivers don't have the confidence to carry the speed through the faster corners, and it's that speed that will generate the temperature we desperately need. So, not an easy day overall but we're getting used to those this year.”
Russell ended the day with a 0.309s one-lap pace advantage over Hamilton, but Mercedes expects that to naturally close once it has completed its overnight analysis of their respective set-up approaches from Friday, all of which revolved around using a rear wing not at Mercedes’ minimum downforce level (it has various flaps that can be trimmed as the drivers require).
Porpoising continues to be a topic to be aware of across the grid, with Mercedes again encountering the issue substantially the lower it ran its W13s to the ground on Friday. Ferrari is also bouncing badly too in Australia – worse than in Bahrain or Jeddah per Leclerc – but not at the cost of pace, just driver comfort. Not that it bothered Leclerc.