Tires are the key for me. The aero is what it is. Those tires are a true unknown. Tested these were in last years cars at Yas. Now only 1 short test in cool temp Spain. This will be key in the heat in Bahrain!!
From this link -
https://www.espn.com/f1/story/_/id/3...preseason-test
Bahrain will offer a completely different challenge for Pirelli, with high temperatures, a rough track surface and a layout that consistently punishes the rear tyres adding up to a heavy workout for the new rubber. If the 2022 tyres can handle the heat and provide consistent performance even when following another car, it will bode well for racing throughout the season.