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DLSTR · 10-06-2021, 12:14 PM

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/f1...urite/6681618/

Formula 1 Opinion
F1 2021's final seven races: Where Red Bull or Mercedes is the favourite
By:
Alex Kalinauckas
Oct 6, 2021, 4:39 AM
OPINION: Formula 1’s current campaign is the closest the championship has witnessed in five years, with Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes narrowly leading Max Verstappen and Red Bull with seven races left. Here’s how those venues favour the title protagonists

The 2021 Formula 1 season is rather different to the four most recent campaigns.

On the eve of the 16th race of the 2020 championship, Lewis Hamilton had already wrapped up the title of a season that was at its penultimate point (and he was in fact absent after contracting COVID-19).

While that campaign was rather unique in modern times thanks to the pressures the infernal pandemic created, the same race number in the previous three years had Hamilton in command over his closest rival (65 points over Valtteri Bottas heading to Sochi in 2019, 40 in front of Sebastian Vettel before the same event in 2018, and 34 ahead of the German going to Japan in 2017).

Not since Nico Rosberg headed to Malaysia with an eight-point lead over Hamilton in 2016 has a title fight been as close as the two-point difference between the Briton and Max Verstappen right now.

There are other differences to those championships as things stand in 2021. The condensed and truncated 2020 was essentially already at its end, but compared to ‘normal’ years in 2016-2019, the current campaign still has more ground to cover. Seven races, in fact, as F1 heads for a record-breaking season length now Qatar has been confirmed as Australia’s replacement.

It is a brutal run to the end of the calendar year, but at the very least F1 personnel have the intrigue of a close fight between two brilliant drivers and teams to follow. If the final (just over one) third plays out as the rest of the season has done, the championship protagonists should expect a close fight to the finish, and, surely, more controversy too.

The constructors’ championship also hangs in the balance right now, although things are currently weighted more favourably towards Mercedes compared to Red Bull. The Black Arrows squad leads by 33 points, with Sergio Perez’s total being just 49.07% of Verstappen's making the difference (Bottas has 61.25% of Hamilton's points).

The 2021 title run-in also has a rather different look compared to previous ‘normal’ campaigns, with the upcoming race in Turkey back for a second year. Plus, Qatar’s arrival – set to be for just a single year at the Losail track before a new circuit is constructed for the event’s post-football World Cup return in 2023 – and the new race in Saudi Arabia.

But it’s still possible to thread the 2021 form book through the final schedule and assess which venues might favour one of the title protagonists over the other.

Starting in Turkey, where Hamilton took a famous win to seal his seventh world title a year ago. He was magnificent in the wet race but struggled on the grip-less track surface in qualifying (where the new, oily track had perplexed Mercedes even in the dry practice) and registered his worst qualifying result of the season. Verstappen arguably should’ve taken pole and then spun away his shot at winning the race while fighting Perez (then at Racing Point, which led the race’s first half with Lance Stroll).

The Istanbul Park surface has been water-blasted to make it rougher and therefore improve grip ahead of this weekend’s race, where Pirelli has also brought tyres one compound step softer (C2-C4). Mercedes must hope these differences will cure the tyre warm-up problems it encountered in 2020. The problem facing the team is that Red Bull is much faster in 2021 overall, and the tyre warm-up issue has been costly at other events earlier in the year (such as Monaco and Baku).

Perhaps the biggest factor that could yet impact the outcome of this super-close season is reliability

The following round at Austin is firm Hamilton and Mercedes territory historically. But while that adds up to five wins in eight races (and five overall for Mercedes), Red Bull has been able to shake Mercedes’ strongholds at Paul Ricard and Silverstone already in 2021.

The Texas track’s combination of fast and flowing first sector, plus long back straight – similar to the French and British venues – might just give Red Bull and edge. That said, Mercedes’ Silverstone update has brought it closer on chassis performance in the high-speed stuff where Red Bull excels.

Mexico and Brazil have been firm Red Bull tracks in the pre-2020 years, with their high-altitude settings typically favouring Honda’s jet-engine inspired power unit. The much thinner air at the former venue may also benefit Red Bull further as drag will be less of a consideration to trim out. The absence of these races gave Mercedes an even simpler task to crush its opposition with the dominant W11 a year ago.

Qatar will be the biggest unknown, but its lack of very high-speed turns means Red Bull’s biggest strength may be somewhat blunted. The team’s Baku form, however, should bode well for Jeddah’s fast, street-track setting once December arrives – although the course’s immense run of small turns might yet spring a few surprises Mercedes can seize on. And there’s the performance of the tyres to consider on such a demanding layout, as Verstappen discovered to his cost in Baku.

Abu Dhabi will be different this time around, with the changes being made at the Yas Marina layout to improve overtaking. This is very much a welcome move given the tedious events the track previously produced – even if there is still doubt about how effective the changes will be (overtaking may even only be possible in one place, the chicane between the two long back straights).

But Red Bull can look back with confidence on Verstappen’s 2020 domination of the season finale, where Mercedes again struggled getting the soft tyres working ideally.

But perhaps the biggest factor that could yet impact the outcome of this super-close season (any performance gaps at the remaining seven races should be pretty small, whichever team is on top), is reliability.

Mercedes faces serious concerns over Hamilton’s remaining engine pool after the fresh unit Bottas took at Monza had to be removed and inspected after a problem was discovered in Sochi.

Toto Wolff says: “We're having a few balls in the air, because you need to have the right balance between making sure that you really sort out all the gremlins that you have in the power unit, not only for this year but also for next year's power unit.”

So, it’s far from given Hamilton won’t, at the very least, have to take a grid penalty in a bid to avoid the fiery Malaysia DNF that gave Rosberg the ultimately decisive 15-point boost heading away from that race in 2016…

Red Bull has already taken the grid penalty pain – last time out for Verstappen at Sochi. But the late-race swing in the rain that meant the Dutchman rose to second ultimately minimised the impact of taking a fourth engine and ratcheted up the pressure of this intense title fight.

10-06-2021, 12:14 PM	#595 (permalink)
DLSTR A True Z Fanatic Join Date: May 2011 Location: Süd Germany Posts: 2,462 Drives: 21Supra 2.0/22 M240i Rep Power: 21267	https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/f1...urite/6681618/ Formula 1 Opinion F1 2021's final seven races: Where Red Bull or Mercedes is the favourite By: Alex Kalinauckas Oct 6, 2021, 4:39 AM OPINION: Formula 1’s current campaign is the closest the championship has witnessed in five years, with Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes narrowly leading Max Verstappen and Red Bull with seven races left. Here’s how those venues favour the title protagonists The 2021 Formula 1 season is rather different to the four most recent campaigns. On the eve of the 16th race of the 2020 championship, Lewis Hamilton had already wrapped up the title of a season that was at its penultimate point (and he was in fact absent after contracting COVID-19). While that campaign was rather unique in modern times thanks to the pressures the infernal pandemic created, the same race number in the previous three years had Hamilton in command over his closest rival (65 points over Valtteri Bottas heading to Sochi in 2019, 40 in front of Sebastian Vettel before the same event in 2018, and 34 ahead of the German going to Japan in 2017). Not since Nico Rosberg headed to Malaysia with an eight-point lead over Hamilton in 2016 has a title fight been as close as the two-point difference between the Briton and Max Verstappen right now. There are other differences to those championships as things stand in 2021. The condensed and truncated 2020 was essentially already at its end, but compared to ‘normal’ years in 2016-2019, the current campaign still has more ground to cover. Seven races, in fact, as F1 heads for a record-breaking season length now Qatar has been confirmed as Australia’s replacement. It is a brutal run to the end of the calendar year, but at the very least F1 personnel have the intrigue of a close fight between two brilliant drivers and teams to follow. If the final (just over one) third plays out as the rest of the season has done, the championship protagonists should expect a close fight to the finish, and, surely, more controversy too. The constructors’ championship also hangs in the balance right now, although things are currently weighted more favourably towards Mercedes compared to Red Bull. The Black Arrows squad leads by 33 points, with Sergio Perez’s total being just 49.07% of Verstappen's making the difference (Bottas has 61.25% of Hamilton's points). The 2021 title run-in also has a rather different look compared to previous ‘normal’ campaigns, with the upcoming race in Turkey back for a second year. Plus, Qatar’s arrival – set to be for just a single year at the Losail track before a new circuit is constructed for the event’s post-football World Cup return in 2023 – and the new race in Saudi Arabia. But it’s still possible to thread the 2021 form book through the final schedule and assess which venues might favour one of the title protagonists over the other. Starting in Turkey, where Hamilton took a famous win to seal his seventh world title a year ago. He was magnificent in the wet race but struggled on the grip-less track surface in qualifying (where the new, oily track had perplexed Mercedes even in the dry practice) and registered his worst qualifying result of the season. Verstappen arguably should’ve taken pole and then spun away his shot at winning the race while fighting Perez (then at Racing Point, which led the race’s first half with Lance Stroll). The Istanbul Park surface has been water-blasted to make it rougher and therefore improve grip ahead of this weekend’s race, where Pirelli has also brought tyres one compound step softer (C2-C4). Mercedes must hope these differences will cure the tyre warm-up problems it encountered in 2020. The problem facing the team is that Red Bull is much faster in 2021 overall, and the tyre warm-up issue has been costly at other events earlier in the year (such as Monaco and Baku). Perhaps the biggest factor that could yet impact the outcome of this super-close season is reliability The following round at Austin is firm Hamilton and Mercedes territory historically. But while that adds up to five wins in eight races (and five overall for Mercedes), Red Bull has been able to shake Mercedes’ strongholds at Paul Ricard and Silverstone already in 2021. The Texas track’s combination of fast and flowing first sector, plus long back straight – similar to the French and British venues – might just give Red Bull and edge. That said, Mercedes’ Silverstone update has brought it closer on chassis performance in the high-speed stuff where Red Bull excels. Mexico and Brazil have been firm Red Bull tracks in the pre-2020 years, with their high-altitude settings typically favouring Honda’s jet-engine inspired power unit. The much thinner air at the former venue may also benefit Red Bull further as drag will be less of a consideration to trim out. The absence of these races gave Mercedes an even simpler task to crush its opposition with the dominant W11 a year ago. Qatar will be the biggest unknown, but its lack of very high-speed turns means Red Bull’s biggest strength may be somewhat blunted. The team’s Baku form, however, should bode well for Jeddah’s fast, street-track setting once December arrives – although the course’s immense run of small turns might yet spring a few surprises Mercedes can seize on. And there’s the performance of the tyres to consider on such a demanding layout, as Verstappen discovered to his cost in Baku. Abu Dhabi will be different this time around, with the changes being made at the Yas Marina layout to improve overtaking. This is very much a welcome move given the tedious events the track previously produced – even if there is still doubt about how effective the changes will be (overtaking may even only be possible in one place, the chicane between the two long back straights). But Red Bull can look back with confidence on Verstappen’s 2020 domination of the season finale, where Mercedes again struggled getting the soft tyres working ideally. But perhaps the biggest factor that could yet impact the outcome of this super-close season (any performance gaps at the remaining seven races should be pretty small, whichever team is on top), is reliability. Mercedes faces serious concerns over Hamilton’s remaining engine pool after the fresh unit Bottas took at Monza had to be removed and inspected after a problem was discovered in Sochi. Toto Wolff says: “We're having a few balls in the air, because you need to have the right balance between making sure that you really sort out all the gremlins that you have in the power unit, not only for this year but also for next year's power unit.” So, it’s far from given Hamilton won’t, at the very least, have to take a grid penalty in a bid to avoid the fiery Malaysia DNF that gave Rosberg the ultimately decisive 15-point boost heading away from that race in 2016… Red Bull has already taken the grid penalty pain – last time out for Verstappen at Sochi. But the late-race swing in the rain that meant the Dutchman rose to second ultimately minimised the impact of taking a fourth engine and ratcheted up the pressure of this intense title fight. Last edited by DLSTR; 10-06-2021 at 12:17 PM.