Quote:
Originally Posted by Zingston
The virus has not been eradicated. I hope the best for Wuhan, but the virus can easily return. We may have witnessed the first of a series of lockdowns. I hope I'm wrong. Either we find a cure, or we all just have to deal with a new virus among us.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rusty
There is already reports coming out of Wuhan of a 2nd wave starting.  The Spanish flu lasted a few years. It had a couple of waves to it. |
Definitely not eradicated. But brought to a point where it can be better controlled.
There might be waves of virus, followed by further periods of isolation to knock it back until a cure or vaccine can be made widely available. But with most now aware of the potential return and taking precautions to limit spread (social distancing, hygene)
Spanish Flu was bad in April and May 1918 and then slowed significantly in the summer only to re-emerge in the fall (October 1918 was the deadliest month).
There is no guarantee that Covid-19 will respond similarly, but it's a useful guide.
Some quick math:
It's said that without limiting social contact, an infected individual will go on to infect on average 3 more people.
Running that scenario out 6 generations of contact, that one person is responsible for making
1,092 others sick.
Social distancing and limiting interactions is supposed to cut the infection rate in half - each person infects only 1.5 others.
After 6 iterations of that, only
31 people have caught the virus.
Major difference!