Have you checked with Panera or Michaels? One of them may have cameras facing out to the parking lot. If you can have the video pulled, you may find something that indicates that she did it.
I've seen videos before where people ding someone else's car, inspect the damage, and look around to see if anyone else saw what they did.
Never hurts to check. Sometimes calling someone on their blatant lies is worth more than the actual cost to fix.
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