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Old 02-20-2015, 09:45 PM   #28 (permalink)
FL 4Motion
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Originally Posted by dragonbreath View Post
I disagree with most of you. The manual transmission will soon fade away. I highly doubt there will be manual transmissions by the year 2030 aside from MAYBE 18 wheelers. Take a look at whats going on. First you have manufacturers like Porsche, known for being a true sports car, phasing out their manual transmissions. I don't remember the year, but I read that they were planning on it. Maybe 2017 or something like that.

Next, you have the sports cars that never had an option for an auto, suddenly having that option. Z06 Vette, Mitsubishi Evo (even thought its dead), the Nismo Z. Im sure there are others that I don't know about. All of these auto makers are pushing the automatic transmission. Its obvious, and ill tell you why. R&D costs. With the sales in manual transmissions falling due to no one knowing how to drive one, soon it won't be profitable to do R&D on the manual transmission. That R&D is going to go into DCT's. Because "its the same thing". You can switch to "manual mode" and the car will shift faster than a normal manual could ever change.

Lastly, and everyone should see this coming as obvious, Im willing to bet it will be mandated by the US Gov that all new vehicles be sold with an "automated transmission" at a certain year for safety reasons. If the driver is too busy directing their attention to changing gears, how can they pay attention to the road? Therefore to inexperienced drivers, that places other drivers at risk. That is the craziest out of all of them, but I gauran-damn-tee you that one of these crack pot senators or representatives will push for that. Just like that moron Feinstein and her complete ignorance to firearms. The gov has already mandated other features for "safety", that one won't be much of a push due to declining sales of the manual transmission and the fact that the skill is also declining anyway. Watch and see gentlemen.
I agree, not sure about that last part but who knows, just watched a motorweek ep recently and one of the ways they are trying to improve big rig mpg is with dual clutch tech in 18 wheelers. Even manual long haul trucks will go auto within the next 5-10 years.

I bet there will still be a couple of niche "throwback" manual option cars at least for the next decade or so like the miata, stang, Z etc.
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