Quote:
Originally Posted by exsanity
So, what is your take on this weekend's games?
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Ok here we go.
Pats at Broncos (-5 to 5 1/2 depending on who you ask. O/U 56 1/2 lmao):
I'm going to be honest with you here. I hate this game a lot for many reasons. Did you know both the Patriots and Broncos are both missing 7+ starters from their lineups? Even the guys that are participating are dinged up:
Patriots - Broncos Injury Report
*Note that the injury report does not show the 12318321 players that have already been ruled out prior to this week.
Motherf'ing Tom Brady missed practice today because he's sick. If he has the same flu/virus thing I had, bet everything on the Broncos. Then again, MJ played pretty well with a fever back in the day so...
I mean, for christ's sake, the Pats are a 2 TE passing team without a starting TE. I have no idea what to make of that. Both teams have middle of the road to crappy defenses that cause the occasional turnover (nod going to Denver). Both teams are going to throw the ball all over the place. Both teams discovered last week that they can run the ball "just because".
Expect the gloves to come off. Neither team is going to waste time establishing the run. The run game will be a nice side note to 300+ yard passing performances by both QBs but whoever wins this will be the team holding the ball last.
The weather in Denver this weekend? A balmy 60 degrees without a cloud in the sky.
This is going to be a scoregasm. The only way this gets out of hand is if Brady is super sick and implodes and somehow, I'm betting this is more traditional Belichick BS anyway.
Verdict: I would not bet this game with YOUR money but if you made me pick, I would take Denver to win straight up but betting-wise, take NE + the points and the over. Yes, the over.
SanFran at Seattle (-3 1/2, O/U 39 1/2):
If I were to bet a game this weekend, it'd be this one. Some interesting betting line factoids for those who don't know:
-The home team automatically gets 3 points for playing at home
-Seattle is the ONLY team in the league that actually gets an extra point for playing at home because of their crowd noise. Seriously.
-So that means that all things being equal, the 9ers are actually favored by a half point.
-A half point means nothing.
So, You have two "new breed" QBs, two teams that pride themselves on defense, a divisional rivalry game, a payback game from last year's playoffs and ...man this makes my head hurt.
My take: Both teams will get after the QB. I expect Kaepernick to get shut down hard. Both of the worst games of Kaepernick's career have come against the Seahawks at Seattle. Seattle is the one freaking team in the league that has a secondary that can get physical enough with SanFran's enormous receivers to do damage. Richard Sherman is a dirty, cheating douchebag but unfortunately, he and his smirking chucklefuck buddies are talented. They're going to stick him on Davis and beat the hell out of him.
Very quickly, SanFran is going to have to lean on their running game and I'm not sure Frank Gore's poor plastic knees can take the abuse. Once that breaks down, Seattle's D will start forcing turnovers when all Kaepernick has left are shitty outside dump passes and the corners start jumping routes.
Did you know Russell Wilson has less than a 60 percent completion percentage over the 2nd half of the season? Now ask if Seattle cares (not that 60% is bad - but he's no Brady/Manning).
*Yes, I know Brady is at like 60.3% right now but remember that the beginning of their season was pretty terrible and he didn't come on until late.
I also believe that the 9ers corners can be exploited. Not that Seattle has the strongest WR corps, but they do have a lot of targets which brings me to...
Marshawn Lynch is the X factor. If he has a big game, this could get ugly fast.
Verdict: Seattle to win, the points and the under. For the record, I don't feel as good about the under as I do about seattle covering.
Obligatory disclaimer: 1) I don't feel as good about either of these games as I did my picks last week. 2) I don't advocate betting money on games and I am not responsible if you foolishly take my advice.