I think Shogun could beat Jones if he's in top shape and comes in with the right strategy. Shogun needs to show up in the best shape of his life and not look flabby on fight day. If he can be aggressive with his leg kicks like he was in the first fight against Machida, he can pretty much eliminate Jones' reach advantage. Jones has skinny legs and a couple of hard leg kicks from Shogun should really slow him down.
Problem is that Shogun keeps showing up to fights out of shape and gasses way to early. Part of that obviously is because of all the damage his body has taken over the years, but he has to find a way to overcome that.
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